Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff WriterSep 12, 2014, 10:00 AM ET
Close
- Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
Week 2 ATS picks | Eliminator picks | Underdog value | NFL PickCenter
LAS VEGAS -- It's been a strange week here in the "Tuley's Take" home office and when I've wandered out and about in the sportsbooks.
Everyone I talk to assumes I did great in the opening weekend of the NFL season during which underdogs went 11-5 against the spread. As a 'dog-or-pass player, it's the type of weekend I live for, especially since the sportsbooks here have said it was their best opening weekend ever. I'm also a contrarian, and I'm usually opposite of the general public and on the side the casinos need, yet I went 3-3 ATS with my "best bets" here and somehow even worse at 1-4 ATS in Week 1 of the Westgate SuperContest.
Sometimes that's just the way it goes. I've had weeks like this before, and I've had plenty of weeks where the favorites dominated yet I cherry-picked a 5-0 or 4-1 record.
That's my goal -- find the best underdog plays on the card each week. There are usually enough faves and 'dogs to go around for any approach to work, as long as you make the right decisions. Unfortunately, I obviously didn't. I will tip my cap to the commenters in last week's column as the plays they objected to the most were the Cowboys and the Giants. If I could have filtered those out and substituted with the Titans and Chargers (the two winners I didn't use in the SuperContest), it would have actually been a better week.
Hopefully I can do better determining which of my plays are better this week. Please join in the discussion below.
Last week: 3-3 ATS (50 percent)
Streak for the Cash: I'm no longer eligible to play ESPN.com's Streak for the Cash contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread -- especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up and the games are closer to pick 'em -- but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column.
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday night (note: Westgate is the new owner of the LVH Hotel, which was formerly known at the Hilton, but the SuperBook name lives on). The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN Insider's PickCenter, also as of Thursday night.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers minus-3 (EVEN)
Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Lions
Public perception: The Lions bandwagon is filling up fast after their rout of the Giants on ESPN's "Monday Night Football." Carolina doesn't often get much public support (it was even hit-and-miss when red-hot last season). The Lions will be a popular teaser play, especially as far as underdogs are concerned.
Wiseguys' view: The Westgate had the Panthers minus-2.5 in its advance line last week, and bumped it to 3 after, without Cam Newton, they beat the Buccaneers. Even after the Lions' rout, there's been resistance to drop the line despite most of the tickets coming in on the Lions.
Tuley's Take: The Panthers did better than expected, but I wasn't as high on the Buccaneers as a lot of other people were. I don't
Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Pick 'em
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Dolphins
Public perception: Both teams pulled big upsets in Week 1, but the public is viewing Miami's home win over New England as more impressive than Buffalo's road win at Chicago. I guess that's understandable since the Patriots are more of a public team than the Bears.
Wiseguys' view: Just about every book here and offshore opened the Bills as a 1-point favorite. Some wiseguys took the Dolphins as a short 'dog and bet it to Miami minus-1, but there's been money coming back on the Bills.
Tuley's Take: It's pretty much a split decision, which isn't surprising with a game at pick 'em. If the Dolphins team that dominated the Patriots on both sides in the second half is the one that shows up in Buffalo, they should be the right side. But I can't ignore that the Bills won on the road as a bigger underdog and that this line has moved the wrong way. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bills).
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins
Spread: Redskins minus-6
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Jaguars
Public perception: Here's another public underdog. The public not only likes what it saw from the Jaguars last week against the Eagles (at least in the first half), but there also wasn't too much positive to come out of the Redskins' loss to the Texans.
Wiseguys' view: Some wiseguys were expecting Washington to bounce back this season with Robert Griffin III healthy and an improved defense. The defense showed up last week, but it doesn't look like a lot of them backing the 'Skins here.
Tuley's Take: I'm still crushed that I was ahead of the curve in believing that the Jaguars would be competitive right out of the gate, yet I lost my bet. If Jacksonville had just been outplayed from the start, I might be getting plus-7 here. Anyway, I still don't see how the Redskins should be favored by this much over anyone, so I'm taking the points. The pick: Jaguars.
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Cowboys
Public perception: There's lukewarm support out here for the Cowboys, certainly not like we used to see for "America's Team." The Titans earned some respect with the solid win over the Chiefs.
Wiseguys' view: This line was under a field goal before Week 1's games, but it has crossed the key number afterward.
Tuley's Take: Yes, the Cowboys didn't look good in their loss to the 49ers, but if you take away the two defensive TDs that the 49ers scored, it wasn't that lopsided. In fact, the Cowboys outgained the 49ers 382-316. (Yes, I know the 49ers had fewer possessions because of those defensive TDs.) The Titans won for me and the Cowboys let me down, but I won't let that cloud my judgment. While I know I'll be on the Titans several more times this season, I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal in this spot. The pick: Cowboys.
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Spread: Cardinals minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Cardinals
Public perception: Monday night's effect on public perception and the Lions' line was nothing compared to this game, as it looks like most people are lining up to bet against the Giants after their performance. The Cardinals probably picked up some supporters for their comeback win against the Chargers.
Wiseguys' view: The NFL Vegas Rankings, of which I'm a voter, has the Cardinals power-rated 5.5 points better than the Giants. The sharps will likely keep being on the Arizona side until it gets bet to 3.
Tuley's Take: This is the first home underdog on the card (home dogs went 2-1 ATS in Week 1), but I can't bite. The Giants should have even more problems going against the Arizona defense, and I wouldn't even recommend teasing the G-Men over a touchdown. The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals).
Matchup: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Patriots minus-6
Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: The public was on the Patriots minus-3 before the Adrian Peterson news broke Friday despite the Vikings beating the Rams by 28 points and the Patriots losing to the Dolphins by 13 last Sunday. After Peterson was deactivated for this game, the line was raised to 6 and the public is still backing the Pats at an 80 percent clip.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped on any Patriots minus-3 they could find when the Peterson news first broke and bet them until a lot of books took it off the board. The line was re-adjusted to 6.5 and a lot of wiseguys thought that a little too high of an adjustment and grabbed the Vikings plus-6.5. If the public bets this back up, the sharps will likely grab more on the Vikes.
Tuley's Take: The Vikings are obviously without their best player, but that's not why I'm avoiding them as a home underdog. Their rout of the Rams -- and let's not forget it was the Rams -- was a case of a game just getting out of hand. They don't get to face a third-string QB here and even with Peterson would have been hard-pressed to keep up with Tom Brady & Co. The Patriots aren't as automatic off a loss as they used to be, but I'm certainly not going to fade them here even with the increase in points. The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Saints minus-6.5
Public consensus pick: 88 percent picked Saints
Public perception: The public is still on the Saints despite their Week 1 loss at Atlanta, and it's likely they'll bet them against the Browns at any number. The Saints probably will be one of the biggest teaser liabilities for the books from squares and sharps alike.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were high on the Saints coming into the season and have been betting this number up as well. There probably will be some that jump in on the Browns when the line peaks, which likely won't happen until game day.
Tuley's Take: I might consider the Browns if/when they're getting a full touchdown or higher, but at the 6.5, I'd still say the value is on the Saints' side. The Browns did show something in rallying against the Steelers, but I don't expect them to keep up with the Saints, who aren't as likely to stop scoring like the Steelers did. The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints).
Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals minus-5.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Falcons
Public perception: Both teams had impressive divisional wins last Sunday. It appears the public liked the Falcons' win over the Saints better than the Bengals' win over the Ravens.
Wiseguys' view: The oddsmakers often put the point spread on the (relatively) dead number of 5 when they're not sure which way the action will come. The wiseguys haven't really tipped their hand on this game, as it's pretty much stayed in that neighborhood.
Tuley's Take: I really like the Bengals, but I have to go against them here. If this was lined closer to a field goal, I would probably pass, but the Falcons showed they've going to be much better than last year's 4-12 team and they should be competitive here. I usually stick to sides here, but I also like the over-49 here. The pick: Falcons.
Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Bucs minus-6
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Bucs
Public perception: Both teams come in off rough openers. The Rams were blown out 34-6 (and that's not going to garner public support very often) while the Buccaneers lost as a popular favorite to the Newton-less Panthers. The public appears to have more faith in the Bucs bouncing back, probably because they at least put up a fight against Carolina.
Wiseguys' view: The Bucs were a trendy wiseguy pick coming into this season and then were the top consensus pick in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest (though that's a mixture of sharps and squares). We started to see some sharp support for the Bucs on Thursday afternoon as they got bet from that dead number of 5.5 to 6.
Tuley's Take: I was looking forward to backing the Rams several times this season as live underdogs, but that Week 1 performance scares me off at least for now. The pick: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers).
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Seahawks minus-6
Public consensus pick: 86 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: The defending Super Bowl champions are clearly now a public team, and with good reason after rolling to a 36-16 opening-night win over Green Bay. It would probably take several ATS losses in a row for the public to abandon them.
Wiseguys' view: A lot of sharps were touting the Chargers coming into the season, and some of the sharps are backing San Diego this week, or else we'd see this line steaming faster. Still, the Seahawks will be a popular teaser as well.
Tuley's Take: The Seahawks are great; they're my No. 1-ranked team and they're not awful on the road anymore, but I believe they're laying too many points against a Chargers team that I also like a lot. The NFL Vegas Rankings had the Chargers only 4.5 points behind the Seahawks, so with home-field advantage, that looks like anything over a field goal is value on San Diego. The pick: Chargers.
Matchup: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders
Spread: Texans minus-3
Public consensus pick: 73 percent picked Texans
Public perception: It doesn't take a wiseguy to know the Texans have too much talent to have another 2-14 season. The defense led the way in the win over the Redskins, and the public expects the Texans to shut down the Raiders as well.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also preferred the Texans at the minus-2.5 line they opened here in Vegas, but those went away pretty quick. It looks like 3 is the right number as it has settled there with added juice at most places for those trying to take the Raiders plus-3.
Tuley's Take: The Raiders covered plus-5.5 versus the Jets, but they didn't look like a team to bet on, as they averaged a low 3.2 yards per play and were outgained 402 to 158. Quarterback Derek Carr, though he showed flashes of potential in Week 1, should have similar growing pains against the Houston D. The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans).
Matchup: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers minus-8.5
Public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Packers
Public perception: The Jets are 1-0 and the Packers are 0-1, but you knew the Packers would see the majority of support from the public. No one is going to knock Green Bay for losing in Seattle. Meanwhile, the jury is still out on how the public feels about the Jets.
Wiseguys' view: I haven't heard any wiseguys touting the Jets yet, but we can assume there's some sharp money on them, as we haven't seen this number steam toward 10. The Packers will be a very big teaser liability for the sportsbooks.
Tuley's Take: I usually like underdogs in this price range (as the 'dog is not bad enough to be getting double digits, but still getting more than a touchdown), but I'm not sure I can pull the trigger here. The Packers have extra time to prepare (and rest, though that isn't as big of a deal after Week 1) and are hard to fade in their home opener. Mainly, I just don't see the Jets keeping up. The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets).
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos minus-12.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: The Broncos got backdoored in their Sunday night win over the Colts, but that hasn't stopped the public from jumping right back on them. After falling in love with the Chiefs the first half of last season, the public has pretty much fallen out of love with them after one week.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys will mostly be avoiding this game. The Broncos look like one of the best teams in the NFL, but you just don't make money laying double digits in the NFL over the long haul.
Tuley's Take: I played the only double-digit underdog last week and got burned with the Jaguars' collapse, but I also believed they would be competitive with the Eagles. I don't feel the same way here, even with the Chiefs getting back wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. I used to blindly bet double-digit underdogs, but I'm trying to be more selective here. The pick: Pass (pool play: Broncos, though Chiefs if you're really looking to go contrarian).
Matchup: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers minus-6.5
Public consensus pick: 68 percent picked 49ers
Public perception: The Bears have their following, but it's been nearly three decades since they were a true nationally public team. The 49ers are more of a public team these days and are the public's side here. A lot of teasers will probably be tied to this Sunday night contest.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps already have taken all they care to get at minus-6 and minus-6.5, pushing the line to 7 at a lot of places. Plenty of wiseguys will be on the Bears as well, but not parting with their money unless getting at least 7.
Tuley's Take: The Cowboys moved the ball OK against the 49ers' D, so I expect the Bears to do the same and make a game of it. The Westgate line as of this writing is 6.5, but I know I'm going to get plus-7 and I'm sure anyone in agreement with me will get it as well, so I'm taking the Bears even though we'll grade it against plus-6.5 here (and I'm passing on plus-6.5 in the SuperContest). The pick: Bears.
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (Monday night/ESPN)
Spread: Colts minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Colts
Public perception: The public usually loves Andrew Luck, though the majority were on Peyton Manning and the Broncos Sunday night and got beat by Luck, as he rallied the Colts for the backdoor cover. But even though the public loves the Eagles' explosive offense (and got bailed out in Week 1), the Colts are the people's choice here
Wiseguys' view: There's a split in the wiseguy community in this game. They snapped up the minus-2.5's that were available and also laid the Colts minus-3 to push it through the key number. But now plenty are liking the Eagles plus the hook (3.5).
Tuley's Take: The Colts were run over by the Broncos early, and the Eagles are certainly capable of doing the same (as long as last week's Philly first-half team doesn't show up). Chip Kelly doesn't let up on the gas, so I think it will be harder for the Colts to rally this time. The pick: Eagles.
Streak for the Cash
When playing this contest, it doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog. The organizers of this contest don't use games with huge spreads (like the Broncos-Chiefs or Packers-Jets or even Saints-Browns), so these are my suggestions from the more competitive games that are being used:
Best bet: Patriots over Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT)
After failing with New England at Miami, I was trying to avoid using them or any other road favorite again, but I don't like any of the home faves they're using this weekend (Panthers, Titans, Colts). So, Patriots it is. That's how I felt when this was first posted Friday and with the game still on the Sunday "Streak" card, it's the obvious choice. Besides, since 2003, the Patriots are 33-4 straight-up after a loss and you can't ask for much more than that.
Confidence meter: 69 percent on the Patriots to win straight-up (the no-vig price would be around minus-230 and we don't see those too often on Streak, so with it still on tit's a no-brainer to take this one - of course, I was wrong on the Pats last week)
Second choice: Texans over Raiders (4:25 p.m. EDT)
Assuming the Patriots-Vikings is finished by the time this one kicks off, I would come right back with this short road fave. As mentioned above, the Texans' D should be able to shut down the Raiders at least as well as the Jets did, and the offense should fare at least as well as the Jets.
Confidence meter: 56.5 percent on the Texans to win straight up (the no-vig price would be around minus-130, but again this looks more likely than that)
